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Who should I spam, or how does winrate change with player’s experience?

DPC2021 Season 1

Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 - All regional leagues and the Singapore Major

Heroes banned: 119

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Here you can see how winrate of a player on a hero changes with more experience (number of matches played). Less experienced players had Q1 and less matches, more experienced players had Q3 and more matches. Winrate gradient represents winrate increase for every match played, winrate difference is the raw difference between winrates of less and more experienced players.
PlayersMatchesLess Experienced PlayersMore Experienced PlayersWinrate Shifts
Hero1 match1+ matchesQ1Q3MaxWinrateMatches avgPlayersWinrateMatches avgPlayersGradientDifference
antimageAnti-Mage25722325.00%1.173058.33%2.50225.06%33.33%
axeAxe14326653.13%1.131650.00%6.001-0.64%-3.13%
baneBane3222262.50%1.254100.00%2.00150.00%37.50%
bloodseekerBloodseeker392723633.62%1.335863.81%3.86711.93%30.19%
crystal_maidenCrystal Maiden2725341142.64%1.654353.54%6.5772.22%10.90%
drow_rangerDrow Ranger24223350.00%1.0425100.00%3.00125.51%50.00%
earthshakerEarthshaker354424745.76%1.415972.79%5.00117.53%27.03%
juggernautJuggernaut353223735.58%1.335267.26%4.38810.39%31.68%
miranaMirana263624848.75%1.354054.21%5.4491.33%5.46%
morphlingMorphling412724639.29%1.275665.48%4.5777.94%26.19%
nevermoreShadow Fiend16623322.50%1.202083.33%3.00233.79%60.83%
phantom_lancerPhantom Lancer361123345.24%1.144288.89%3.00323.47%43.65%
puckPuck5580241238.51%1.378759.77%6.65204.03%21.26%
pudgePudge101110.00%1.0010.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
razorRazor20624858.70%1.132368.75%6.0022.06%10.05%
sand_kingSand King271623544.59%1.273760.83%3.7546.55%16.24%
storm_spiritStorm Spirit3325241447.62%1.214263.78%6.2973.18%16.16%
svenSven1322250.00%1.67350.00%2.0010.00%0.00%
tinyTiny25923741.94%1.193148.81%4.6731.97%6.87%
vengefulspiritVengeful Spirit6122250.00%1.0060.00%2.001-50.00%-50.00%
windrunnerWindranger24922545.00%1.203058.89%3.3336.52%13.89%
zuusZeus11122254.55%1.001150.00%2.001-4.55%-4.55%
kunkkaKunkka23923453.70%1.152761.11%3.3333.40%7.41%
linaLina22824533.33%1.192767.50%4.50210.32%34.17%
lionLion3617251542.86%1.144254.33%8.4051.58%11.47%
shadow_shamanShadow Shaman3342241433.67%1.334946.47%6.73112.37%12.80%
slardarSlardar24424451.92%1.082650.00%4.001-0.66%-1.92%
tidehunterTidehunter443624745.08%1.286160.79%4.8994.35%15.71%
witch_doctorWitch Doctor162725832.00%1.362567.01%6.2977.10%35.01%
lichLich4225530.00%1.20560.00%5.0017.89%30.00%
rikiRiki351623433.33%1.224560.42%3.50411.88%27.09%
enigmaEnigma352224638.30%1.264762.78%4.8366.86%24.48%
tinkerTinker201110.00%1.0020.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
sniperSniper2122250.00%1.00250.00%2.0010.00%0.00%
necrolyteNecrophos10111100.00%1.001100.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
warlockWarlock6011166.67%1.00666.67%1.0000.00%0.00%
beastmasterBeastmaster2946241146.74%1.374668.01%5.58125.05%21.27%
queenofpainQueen of Pain341622848.91%1.264633.33%4.254-5.21%-15.58%
venomancerVenomancer261024439.39%1.213341.67%4.0030.82%2.28%
faceless_voidFaceless Void3011133.33%1.00333.33%1.0000.00%0.00%
skeleton_kingWraith King305924842.31%1.425263.52%5.73154.92%21.21%
death_prophetDeath Prophet565824946.55%1.368754.08%4.87152.15%7.53%
phantom_assassinPhantom Assassin232623648.61%1.363643.10%3.867-2.20%-5.51%
pugnaPugna13322236.67%1.13150.00%2.001-42.15%-36.67%
templar_assassinTemplar Assassin26923445.31%1.193244.44%3.333-0.41%-0.87%
viperViper411423443.00%1.185077.08%3.25416.46%34.08%
lunaLuna9624434.62%1.311350.00%4.0025.72%15.38%
dragon_knightDragon Knight341122347.62%1.194261.11%2.6739.11%13.49%
dazzleDazzle3133333.33%1.00366.67%3.00116.67%33.34%
rattletrapClockwerk453023752.31%1.316560.89%4.3882.79%8.58%
leshracLeshrac272023427.50%1.334076.67%3.40523.75%49.17%
furionNature's Prophet493324546.21%1.266662.22%4.3395.21%16.01%
life_stealerLifestealer9523341.67%1.251250.00%3.0024.76%8.33%
dark_seerDark Seer211224544.44%1.222736.67%4.333-2.50%-7.77%
clinkzClinkz412220.00%1.00450.00%2.00150.00%50.00%
omniknightOmniknight5011140.00%1.00540.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
enchantressEnchantress222123645.31%1.313251.39%4.8361.73%6.08%
huskarHuskar1323383.33%1.67366.67%3.001-12.53%-16.66%
night_stalkerNight Stalker23722344.64%1.182858.33%2.50210.37%13.69%
broodmotherBroodmother6133333.33%1.00666.67%3.00116.67%33.34%
bounty_hunterBounty Hunter14522338.24%1.181758.33%2.50215.22%20.09%
weaverWeaver392023626.42%1.265373.33%4.20515.96%46.91%
jakiroJakiro10337725.00%1.331257.14%7.0015.67%32.14%
batriderBatrider583623444.87%1.267852.78%3.4493.63%7.91%
chenChen6426662.50%1.25850.00%6.001-2.63%-12.50%
spectreSpectre6011166.67%1.00666.67%1.0000.00%0.00%
ancient_apparitionAncient Apparition1713231038.46%1.352656.67%4.7545.36%18.21%
doom_bringerDoom17224430.56%1.061875.00%4.00115.12%44.44%
ursaUrsa343423534.62%1.355261.30%4.00910.07%26.68%
spirit_breakerSpirit Breaker16823529.55%1.272256.67%4.0029.93%27.12%
gyrocopterGyrocopter191223530.36%1.322853.33%3.6739.77%22.97%
alchemistAlchemist461722638.79%1.215860.00%3.8058.19%21.21%
invokerInvoker291823435.53%1.243856.67%3.20510.79%21.14%
silencerSilencer5122260.00%1.00550.00%2.001-10.00%-10.00%
obsidian_destroyerOutworld Destroyer512223534.85%1.236660.28%3.8369.78%25.43%
lycanLycan432122555.17%1.265846.11%3.176-4.74%-9.06%
brewmasterBrewmaster231523333.82%1.323458.33%3.00414.59%24.51%
shadow_demonShadow Demon171123550.00%1.322560.00%3.6734.26%10.00%
lone_druidLone Druid2246666.67%2.00350.00%6.001-4.17%-16.67%
chaos_knightChaos Knight6222228.57%1.147100.00%2.00183.06%71.43%
meepoMeepo3011166.67%1.00366.67%1.0000.00%0.00%
treantTreant Protector5423343.75%1.38833.33%3.001-6.43%-10.42%
ogre_magiOgre Magi131424635.71%1.382158.75%5.0046.36%23.04%
undyingUndying292523529.07%1.334341.43%3.5775.52%12.36%
rubickRubick335624639.83%1.445949.64%4.64143.07%9.81%
disruptorDisruptor131424855.56%1.281866.88%5.2542.85%11.32%
nyx_assassinNyx Assassin525124946.15%1.337862.84%5.54133.96%16.69%
naga_sirenNaga Siren19322226.19%1.1021100.00%2.00182.01%73.81%
keeper_of_the_lightKeeper of the Light295323749.14%1.505865.05%4.36145.56%15.91%
wispIo242123843.24%1.353768.47%4.6767.60%25.23%
visageVisage122220.00%1.50250.00%2.001100.00%50.00%
slarkSlark231022335.00%1.233066.67%2.67321.99%31.67%
medusaMedusa322223444.68%1.324768.06%3.6769.95%23.38%
troll_warlordTroll Warlord4632241344.74%1.195770.84%6.3885.03%26.10%
centaurCentaur Warrunner13422243.75%1.191650.00%2.0017.72%6.25%
magnataurMagnus9133355.56%1.00966.67%3.0015.56%11.11%
shredderTimbersaw312924937.21%1.284363.96%5.0087.19%26.75%
bristlebackBristleback231322440.63%1.283256.25%3.0049.08%15.62%
tuskTusk3640251129.00%1.285065.75%6.80106.66%36.75%
skywrath_mageSkywrath Mage12122233.33%1.00120.00%2.001-33.33%-33.33%
abaddonAbaddon202124961.11%1.262754.26%5.506-1.62%-6.85%
elder_titanElder Titan2520241450.00%1.293565.71%7.4052.57%15.71%
legion_commanderLegion Commander171623635.71%1.392854.17%3.7547.82%18.46%
techiesTechies401110.00%1.0040.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
ember_spiritEmber Spirit572723739.58%1.217256.87%4.1475.90%17.29%
earth_spiritEarth Spirit2956241826.67%1.364556.55%7.07145.23%29.88%
abyssal_underlordUnderlord281923540.00%1.304078.00%4.20513.10%38.00%
terrorbladeTerrorblade361823741.49%1.234763.10%4.4056.82%21.61%
phoenixPhoenix4837251252.54%1.195972.79%7.80103.06%20.25%
oracleOracle3036251140.70%1.304361.06%7.0093.57%20.36%
winter_wyvernWinter Wyvern21523552.17%1.092320.00%4.002-11.05%-32.17%
arc_wardenArc Warden12423346.67%1.201566.67%3.00111.11%20.00%
monkey_kingMonkey King5849231442.44%1.338668.70%4.77137.63%26.26%
dark_willowDark Willow141224733.33%1.332164.05%5.3337.68%30.72%
pangolierPangolier4438241232.76%1.245867.91%7.20105.90%35.15%
grimstrokeGrimstroke494324734.51%1.317137.40%5.27110.73%2.89%
void_spiritVoid Spirit5970241742.61%1.338857.36%7.00182.60%14.75%
snapfireSnapfire12322242.86%1.141450.00%2.0018.30%7.14%
marsMars4565241147.06%1.346850.61%5.71170.81%3.55%