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Who should I spam, or how does winrate change with player’s experience?

Competitive Meta - Last Two Weeks

Tier 1/2 tournaments stats for the past 14 days

Heroes banned: 114

Here you can see how winrate of a player on a hero changes with more experience (number of matches played). Less experienced players had Q1 and less matches, more experienced players had Q3 and more matches. Winrate gradient represents winrate increase for every match played, winrate difference is the raw difference between winrates of less and more experienced players.
PlayersMatchesLess Experienced PlayersMore Experienced PlayersWinrate Shifts
Hero1 match1+ matchesQ1Q3MaxWinrateMatches avgPlayersWinrateMatches avgPlayersGradientDifference
antimageAnti-Mage6423355.56%1.33966.67%3.0016.65%11.11%
axeAxe331723434.09%1.254475.00%3.40519.03%40.91%
baneBane2122250.00%1.00250.00%2.0010.00%0.00%
bloodseekerBloodseeker21122242.86%1.002150.00%2.0017.14%7.14%
crystal_maidenCrystal Maiden4223360.00%1.205100.00%3.00122.22%40.00%
drow_rangerDrow Ranger14423350.00%1.181766.67%3.0019.16%16.67%
earthshakerEarthshaker20111100.00%1.002100.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
juggernautJuggernaut311622546.51%1.284340.00%3.254-3.30%-6.51%
miranaMirana321323752.50%1.204076.19%4.0048.46%23.69%
morphlingMorphling251423455.71%1.293539.58%3.254-8.23%-16.13%
nevermoreShadow Fiend9328825.00%1.101050.00%8.0013.62%25.00%
phantom_lancerPhantom Lancer14522338.24%1.181758.33%2.50215.22%20.09%
puckPuck402324644.90%1.184947.50%4.8360.71%2.60%
pudgePudge2011150.00%1.00250.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
razorRazor17523457.50%1.152087.50%3.50212.77%30.00%
sand_kingSand King19523329.55%1.142266.67%3.00219.96%37.12%
storm_spiritStorm Spirit231623438.33%1.233070.83%3.50414.32%32.50%
svenSven21723332.61%1.092366.67%3.00217.83%34.06%
tinyTiny622323641.77%1.227943.89%3.8360.81%2.12%
vengefulspiritVengeful Spirit313330.00%1.00366.67%3.00133.34%66.67%
windrunnerWindranger17222252.78%1.0618100.00%2.00150.23%47.22%
zuusZeus6122216.67%1.0060.00%2.001-16.67%-16.67%
kunkkaKunkka12324475.00%1.141450.00%4.001-8.74%-25.00%
linaLina301224441.67%1.173633.33%4.003-2.95%-8.34%
lionLion442524640.52%1.245856.19%4.7174.52%15.67%
shadow_shamanShadow Shaman14623641.67%1.221841.67%4.5020.00%0.00%
slardarSlardar271123451.43%1.233583.33%3.67313.07%31.90%
tidehunterTidehunter241323448.48%1.273327.08%3.254-10.81%-21.40%
witch_doctorWitch Doctor18523540.00%1.102080.00%4.00213.79%40.00%
lichLich3122233.33%1.0030.00%2.001-33.33%-33.33%
rikiRiki8122262.50%1.00850.00%2.001-12.50%-12.50%
enigmaEnigma7122242.86%1.007100.00%2.00157.14%57.14%
tinkerTinker5011120.00%1.00520.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
sniperSniper4011125.00%1.00425.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
necrolyteNecrophos9122255.56%1.009100.00%2.00144.44%44.44%
warlockWarlock181022340.00%1.282561.11%2.67315.19%21.11%
beastmasterBeastmaster15422236.11%1.171850.00%2.00116.73%13.89%
queenofpainQueen of Pain12323339.29%1.141433.33%3.001-3.20%-5.96%
venomancerVenomancer11122245.45%1.00110.00%2.001-45.45%-45.45%
faceless_voidFaceless Void291223554.05%1.223769.44%4.0035.54%15.39%
skeleton_kingWraith King321323551.28%1.183957.92%4.0042.35%6.64%
death_prophetDeath Prophet271323427.78%1.253679.17%3.25425.70%51.39%
phantom_assassinPhantom Assassin251022535.94%1.223230.00%3.003-3.34%-5.94%
pugnaPugna8122250.00%1.00850.00%2.0010.00%0.00%
templar_assassinTemplar Assassin22623367.31%1.1526100.00%3.00217.67%32.69%
viperViper121122357.50%1.402055.56%2.333-2.09%-1.94%
lunaLuna271023348.53%1.213466.67%3.00310.13%18.14%
dragon_knightDragon Knight23823335.71%1.182850.00%3.0027.85%14.29%
dazzleDazzle6323343.75%1.25866.67%3.00113.10%22.92%
rattletrapClockwerk291022643.06%1.193661.11%3.6737.28%18.05%
leshracLeshrac391425853.26%1.154657.08%6.0040.79%3.82%
furionNature's Prophet10522246.15%1.231350.00%2.0025.00%3.85%
life_stealerLifestealer251322652.94%1.263445.83%3.504-3.17%-7.11%
dark_seerDark Seer231023448.33%1.233069.44%3.33310.05%21.11%
clinkzClinkz10111100.00%1.001100.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
omniknightOmniknight6122250.00%1.00650.00%2.0010.00%0.00%
enchantressEnchantress302424652.38%1.294251.67%5.506-0.17%-0.71%
huskarHuskar5011160.00%1.00560.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
night_stalkerNight Stalker14011157.14%1.001457.14%1.0000.00%0.00%
broodmotherBroodmother19924429.17%1.212475.00%4.00316.43%45.83%
bounty_hunterBounty Hunter4222210.00%1.20550.00%2.00150.00%40.00%
weaverWeaver4222250.00%1.20550.00%2.0010.00%0.00%
jakiroJakiro3122233.33%1.003100.00%2.00166.67%66.67%
batriderBatrider20223338.10%1.052166.67%3.00114.65%28.57%
spectreSpectre17724529.55%1.232275.00%4.50213.90%45.45%
ancient_apparitionAncient Apparition231723757.81%1.283250.71%4.005-2.61%-7.10%
doom_bringerDoom211124557.14%1.252850.00%4.673-2.09%-7.14%
ursaUrsa201124844.00%1.202555.83%5.6732.65%11.83%
spirit_breakerSpirit Breaker112220.00%1.00150.00%2.00150.00%50.00%
gyrocopterGyrocopter25922340.32%1.193127.78%2.673-8.47%-12.54%
alchemistAlchemist4011150.00%1.00450.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
invokerInvoker25822243.55%1.193150.00%2.0027.96%6.45%
silencerSilencer101110.00%1.0010.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
obsidian_destroyerOutworld Destroyer5222241.67%1.176100.00%2.00170.28%58.33%
lycanLycan4222230.00%1.20550.00%2.00125.00%20.00%
brewmasterBrewmaster6122250.00%1.00650.00%2.0010.00%0.00%
shadow_demonShadow Demon21833359.26%1.372766.67%3.0024.55%7.41%
lone_druidLone Druid3133366.67%1.003100.00%3.00116.67%33.33%
chaos_knightChaos Knight7122257.14%1.007100.00%2.00142.86%42.86%
meepoMeepo10111100.00%1.001100.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
treantTreant Protector161225936.36%1.272262.01%7.0034.48%25.65%
ogre_magiOgre Magi7523355.56%1.22966.67%3.0026.24%11.11%
undyingUndying5133380.00%1.00566.67%3.001-6.67%-13.33%
rubickRubick27923450.00%1.133144.44%3.673-2.19%-5.56%
disruptorDisruptor11523339.29%1.211483.33%3.00224.60%44.04%
nyx_assassinNyx Assassin321923450.00%1.204041.67%3.405-3.79%-8.33%
naga_sirenNaga Siren20111100.00%1.002100.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
keeper_of_the_lightKeeper of the Light5324433.33%1.17675.00%4.00114.72%41.67%
wispIo13822331.58%1.321975.00%2.50236.80%43.42%
visageVisage4225550.00%1.20540.00%5.001-2.63%-10.00%
slarkSlark11122227.27%1.001150.00%2.00122.73%22.73%
medusaMedusa261323343.94%1.213383.33%3.00422.01%39.39%
troll_warlordTroll Warlord24923343.33%1.203055.56%3.0036.79%12.23%
centaurCentaur Warrunner333623755.77%1.375257.80%4.8990.58%2.03%
magnataurMagnus15623427.78%1.1718100.00%3.50231.00%72.22%
shredderTimbersaw251722440.54%1.323773.33%2.80522.16%32.79%
bristlebackBristleback23423346.00%1.0825100.00%3.00128.13%54.00%
tuskTusk311322450.00%1.234081.25%2.75420.56%31.25%
skywrath_mageSkywrath Mage14823450.00%1.302045.83%3.502-1.90%-4.17%
abaddonAbaddon231824733.87%1.263156.71%5.4055.52%22.84%
elder_titanElder Titan421425744.00%1.165057.86%6.0042.86%13.86%
legion_commanderLegion Commander181423642.00%1.282546.67%4.7541.35%4.67%
techiesTechies10111100.00%1.001100.00%1.0000.00%0.00%
ember_spiritEmber Spirit281223560.00%1.203586.67%3.67310.80%26.67%
earth_spiritEarth Spirit191323517.86%1.322851.67%4.00412.62%33.81%
abyssal_underlordUnderlord14424441.18%1.181750.00%4.0013.13%8.82%
terrorbladeTerrorblade13426646.88%1.191633.33%6.001-2.82%-13.55%
phoenixPhoenix271423640.00%1.233568.75%4.5048.79%28.75%
oracleOracle26823351.61%1.163183.33%3.00217.24%31.72%
winter_wyvernWinter Wyvern16233352.94%1.1217100.00%3.00125.03%47.06%
arc_wardenArc Warden6122250.00%1.006100.00%2.00150.00%50.00%
monkey_kingMonkey King10222227.27%1.091150.00%2.00124.98%22.73%
dark_willowDark Willow26734437.10%1.293175.00%4.00213.99%37.90%
pangolierPangolier18923358.33%1.252444.44%3.003-7.94%-13.89%
grimstrokeGrimstroke383223737.07%1.345856.52%4.1386.97%19.45%
hoodwinkHoodwink10323350.00%1.1712100.00%3.00127.32%50.00%
void_spiritVoid Spirit351623340.00%1.224550.00%3.0045.62%10.00%
snapfireSnapfire513623841.55%1.287163.88%4.8996.19%22.33%
marsMars432523745.28%1.195372.11%4.5777.94%26.83%